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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still