Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
