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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.