A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
